Executive Summary

Q2 2025 revenue was $4.57B and diluted EPS $2.01; both modestly below Wall Street consensus, with revenue missing by ~$0.17B and EPS by $0.07. Sequential operating income rose 39% on spread expansion, driven by higher realized steel pricing and improved long products shipments . Consensus figures from S&P Global: revenue $4.73B*, EPS $2.08*.
Margin recovery was visible: gross profit $618M and operating income $383M, aided by average steel selling prices rising $136/ton to $1,134, versus scrap up $22/ton to $408 .
Key operational events: first commercial aluminum flat-rolled coils shipped June 16; Sinton’s oxygen supply issue curtailed ~55k tons but has been resolved; noncash consumables write-off reduced steel ops earnings by ~$32M .
Guidance tone constructive: Q2 EPS was guided to $2.00–$2.04 (achieved $2.01); aluminum operations guided to approach EBITDA breakeven in Q4 with Q3/Q4 operating loss narrowing; capex for 2H 2025 at ~$400M; interest expense rising as aluminum capitalization ends .
Potential stock catalysts: final determinations on coated flat-rolled trade case by end-Q3 (tailwind for North American coated spreads), aluminum commissioning ramp and certification trajectory, and a steel fabrication profit inflection supported by backlog extending into 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Spread expansion: average external steel selling price rose $136/ton to $1,134 while scrap increased $22/ton to $408; steel operating income up 66% sequentially to $382M . “Steel pricing stabilized at higher levels, resulting in a significant sequential improvement” .
Metals recycling shipments hit records; platform continues to be a strategic advantage supporting steel/aluminum feedstock and enabling higher recycled content .
Strategic milestones: first aluminum coils shipped (June 16), with exit-2025 utilization targeted at 40–50% and 2026 at 75%; robust customer engagement and ramp plan across industrial/can sheet and automotive alloys .

What Went Wrong

Volume headwinds: a supplier-limited oxygen supply at Sinton cut ~55,000 tons, suppressing flat-rolled shipments; issue now resolved .
Noncash hit: ~$32M consumables write-off reduced steel segment earnings in Q2 .
Demand hesitancy and import overhang: coated flat-rolled inventories tied to imports compressed coated volumes and pricing; customers cautious amid trade policy uncertainty .

Financial Results

Headline Financials vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025 Actual	Q2 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$4.63	$4.37	$4.57	$4.73*
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.72	$1.44	$2.01	$2.08*

Notes: Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus estimates.*

Profitability and Margins

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$774.8	$486.5	$618.5
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$559.1	$275.1	$382.9
Gross Margin (%)	16.7%	11.1%	13.5%
EBIT Margin (%)	12.1%	6.3%	8.4%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$686.4	$448.3	$533.4

Segment Breakdown

Segment	Q2 2024 External Net Sales ($MM)	Q1 2025 External Net Sales ($MM)	Q2 2025 External Net Sales ($MM)	Q2 2024 Operating Income ($MM)	Q1 2025 Operating Income ($MM)	Q2 2025 Operating Income ($MM)
Steel	$3,132.2	$3,067.0	$3,275.6	$442.3	$229.96	$382.2
Steel Fabrication	$472.8	$352.3	$340.6	$180.8	$116.75	$93.1
Metals Recycling	$517.2	$534.9	$522.7	$26.75	$25.71	$21.29
Aluminum	$69.3	$66.6	$65.6	$(13.86)	$(28.74)	$(40.63)
Other	$441.1	$348.4	$360.6	N/A	N/A	N/A

KPIs

KPI	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Avg Steel External Sales Price ($/ton)	$1,138	$998	$1,134
Avg Ferrous Cost ($/ton melted)	$388	$386	$408
Total Steel Shipments (tons)	3,203,200	3,481,539	3,349,798
External Steel Shipments (tons)	2,753,117	3,071,735	2,888,916
Steel Mill Production (tons)	2,802,086	3,021,593	2,949,936
Fabrication Avg Sales Price ($/ton)	$2,978	$2,599	$2,517
Fabrication Shipments (tons)	159,069	135,581	135,347
Flat Roll Shipments—Butler/Columbus/Sinton (tons)	1,943,583	2,119,187	1,952,228
Metals Recycling—Ferrous Shipments (gross tons)	1,509,924	1,452,432	1,596,583
Q2 Product Mix—Hot Rolled (tons)	—	—	930,000
Q2 Product Mix—Cold Rolled (tons)	—	—	114,000
Q2 Product Mix—Coated (tons)	—	—	1,387,000

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
EPS (diluted)	Q2 2025	—	$2.00–$2.04	New
Aluminum ops operating loss	Q3 2025	—	~$(40)M	New
Aluminum ops operating loss	Q4 2025	—	~$(15)–$(20)M	New
Aluminum EBITDA timing	2H 2025	EBITDA-positive “second half”	“Before end of 2025 (Q4)”	Timing clarified
Interest expense (company total)	Q3 2025	Capitalized pre-startup	~$30M (cap stopped)	Increased
Interest expense (company total)	Q4 2025	Capitalized pre-startup	~$45M	Increased
Capex	2H 2025	—	~$400M	New
Steel fabrication profitability	Q3 2025	Backlog extended; Q1 lower sequential	Inflection in Q2, improvement expected in Q3	Raised
Aluminum utilization	Exit 2025	Start shipments mid-2025	40–50% exit rate	New/updated
Aluminum utilization	Exit 2026	—	~75% exit rate	New
Dividend	Q2 2025	Increased 9% to $0.50 (Feb)	Declared $0.50 for Q2	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Coated import overhang/trade case	Imports pressured coated spreads; CORE case initiated	Inventories from imports compressed coated volumes; final determinations expected by end-Q3	Improving post-final ruling
Sinton ramp	Q4: operating loss; target profitability in 1H 2025	Oxygen supply constrained ~55k tons; earnings better sequentially; utilization ~71–80% and rising	Positive ramp into 2H
Aluminum commissioning	Q1: commissioning, mid-2025 first shipments expected	First coils shipped; EBITDA-positive before end-2025; utilization 40–50% exit-2025	Accelerating
Fabrication demand/backlog	Backlog extended into 1H/Q4 2025; pricing strong	Backlog +15% YTD, extends into 2026; Q3 profit improvement expected	Improving volumes
Metals recycling	Q4: stronger spreads despite lower shipments	Record shipments; pricing headwinds offset	Stable to improving
Sustainability (biocarbon/awards)	Low-carbon positioning emphasized	Biocarbon commissioning; VW sustainability award; GSCC certifications	Strengthening
Automotive outlook	Stable with specialty grades advancement	Modest industry downtick; SDI customer base stable with sustainability edge	Stable SDI positioning

Management Commentary

“During the second quarter 2025, steel pricing stabilized at higher levels, resulting in a significant sequential improvement in consolidated operating income of 39 percent and adjusted EBITDA of 19 percent” .
“The uncertainty regarding trade policy… combined with an inventory overhang of coated flat rolled steel, resulted in lower steel and steel fabrication shipments in the second quarter 2025” .
“Sinton’s access to oxygen… was limited by its supplier for over 65 days, negatively impacting volume by an estimated 55,000 tons… Full access… has been restored” .
“Our aluminum team continues to successfully commission… Last month we successfully produced and sold our first aluminum coils… We anticipate exiting 2025 at a utilization rate of between 40 and 50 percent” .
CFO: “Operating losses from the aluminum operations totaled $69 million in the first half of 2025… we estimate comparative losses… ~$40 million for Q3… improving to between $15 and $20 million for Q4… we expect… EBITDA positive before the end of 2025” and “we estimate interest expense to increase to about $30 million in Q3 and to the full $45 million in Q4” .
“We were awarded the Volkswagen Global Group Award for sustainability” ; formal PR confirms recognition .

Q&A Highlights

Aluminum ramp timing and profitability: Management clarified EBITDA-positive remains on track for 2H with specificity toward Q4, not a change in underlying thesis; utilization target unchanged (40–50% exit-2025) .
Sinton profitability trajectory: No segment-specific EBITDA disclosed; drivers cited are volume recovery, higher value-added mix, and resolution of oxygen disruption; step-function improvement expected in 2H .
Pig iron tariffs and supply chain: Flat-rolled pig iron sourcing diversified (Butler internal pig iron, Ukraine/Brazil merchants); will balance metallic spreads and advocate for raw material tariff relief; long products mills do not use pig iron .
Biocarbon benefits: First facility can replace a large portion of anthracite, potentially reduce Steel Scope 1 emissions by up to ~35%; modular expansion could enable low-carbon pig iron domestically over time .
Fabrication drivers: Profit inflection in Q3 expected primarily on volume, with stable pricing; mix remains ~50% joist / ~50% deck .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 vs consensus: Revenue $4.57B vs $4.73B*, EPS $2.01 vs $2.08*; 6 revenue estimates and 5 EPS estimates contributed to consensus*. Q1 2025 actuals were above consensus on both revenue and EPS; Q4 2024 similarly modestly above consensus*.

Metric	Q4 2024 Consensus*	Q4 2024 Actual	Q1 2025 Consensus*	Q1 2025 Actual	Q2 2025 Consensus*	Q2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$4.00*	$3.87	$4.18*	$4.37	$4.73*	$4.57
EPS ($)	$1.29*	$1.36	$1.38*	$1.44	$2.08*	$2.01
# of Estimates (Revenue)	—	—	7*	—	6*	—
# of Estimates (EPS)	—	—	10*	—	5*	—

Notes: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Given aluminum loss narrowing and exit-2025 utilization guidance, estimates for Q4 and FY 2026 may need upward revision for EBITDA trajectory; near-term interest expense step-up and coated import normalization could modestly pressure Q3 EPS while aiding coated spreads post-rulings .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Sequential recovery underpinned by spread expansion and long products; watch for coated trade case final ruling by end-Q3 as a potential spread tailwind in Q4/Q1 .
Aluminum commissioning has moved from concept to production; management expects EBITDA-positive before year-end and significant utilization ramp through 2026—key multi-year growth vector .
Fabrication appears at an earnings inflection point with backlog up ~15% since Jan and extending into 2026—volume sensitivity should drop through to profit as steel substrate costs stabilize .
Sinton bottleneck resolved; expect a step-up in 2H driven by volume and higher-value coated output; watch yield and % prime improvements on paint/galv lines as margin driver .
Near term headwinds: higher interest expense due to end of interest capitalization (Q3 ~$30M, Q4 ~$45M) and ongoing demand hesitancy tied to trade uncertainty; factor these into Q3 EPS modeling .
Sustainability differentiation is tangible (VW award, GSCC certification); biocarbon commissioning could offer unique carbon credit pathways and feedstock optionality, enhancing OEM relationships and pricing power .
Capital allocation remains disciplined: 2H capex ~$400M; $1.2B repurchase authorization remains; dividend maintained at $0.50—supports shareholder returns while funding growth .

STEEL DYNAMICS INC (STLD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary